How the playoff odds are worked out
We take your league’s remaining regular-season schedule straight from Sleeper and play it out 10,000 times. Each week, every team gets a random score based on how it has scored so far, and the matchups are decided by those scores.
Early in the season a team’s average says less about how good it really is, so each team’s average is pulled part of the way towards the league average. After six weeks it’s pulled about 40% of the way, and less as the season goes on. The week-to-week spread comes from your own league’s results, so a swingy league produces swingier odds.
At the end of each simulated season we seed the playoffs by wins, then points for, which is Sleeper’s default. Then we play out the bracket using your league’s own playoff settings: how many teams make it, whether rounds are one or two weeks, and whether the bracket is reseeded.
What the numbers tell you
Make playoffs is the share of simulated seasons in which a team finishes in a playoff spot. Bye and No. 1 seed work the same way. Win league is the share of simulations in which that team wins the whole thing.
The win / lose column is often the most useful. It shows each team’s playoff chances if it wins or loses its next matchup, so you can see which games actually matter. A team at 45% that jumps to 70% with a win has a lot riding on this week.
You can show every figure as a percentage, fractional odds or decimal odds. The odds are fair odds with no bookmaker margin, so 4/1 means a team does it in one simulated season in five.
Questions
Does it use my league’s real schedule?
Yes. The remaining matchups come directly from Sleeper, so the odds reflect who each team actually still has to play.
Does it handle the extra win against the league median?
Yes. If your league plays a win against the median score each week, that game is simulated too.
Why are a team’s odds lower than its record suggests?
Usually because it has been lucky. A team that keeps winning close games while scoring below average is likely to win less often from here, and the simulation reflects that.