How we measure luck
In fantasy football you don’t control who you play. Score the second-highest total of the week and still lose, and that’s bad luck. Score the second-lowest and win, and that’s good luck. Over a season those weeks add up.
To separate skill from schedule, we replay every week as if each team had played every other team. Scoring third-highest in a 12-team league is nine wins and two losses that week. Added up over the season, that gives each team’s all-play record.
From the all-play record we work out expected wins: how many games a team would have won on average, given its scores. Luck is actual wins minus expected wins. A team at +2.0 has two more wins than its scoring deserves.
Power rankings
The power score combines all-play win rate (70%) with points scored relative to the league’s top scorer (30%). It’s a better guide to who’s actually good than the standings, especially early in the season, when a soft schedule can hide a weak team.
The page also picks out the cruellest loss of the season, meaning the highest score that still lost, and the luckiest win, the lowest score that still won. Both are usually good for the group chat.
Questions
What is an all-play record?
It’s each team’s record if it had played every other team every week. It removes the luck of who you happened to face.
Does luck even out over a season?
Partly. Over a full season luck tends to shrink relative to skill, but with only 14 or so regular-season games it often doesn’t fully even out, which is why the luckiest teams sometimes make the playoffs anyway.
Does it work for leagues with a median game?
Yes. The win against the median doesn’t depend on your opponent, so it’s counted as part of expected wins rather than luck.