How the win chances are worked out
Each team’s chance of winning comes from how it has scored so far this season. We take every team’s weekly average, pull it part of the way towards the league average (early-season scoring exaggerates real differences), and use your league’s actual week-to-week spread to work out how often one team outscores the other.
It’s the same scoring model as the playoff and title odds, so the two never contradict each other. The chances are shown as fair odds with no bookmaker margin, or as percentages if you prefer.
Which games matter most
Under every game you’ll see each team’s playoff chances with a win and with a loss. The bigger the gap, the more that game matters. The game with the biggest combined swing is marked as the game of the week.
Once the site knows which team is yours, your matchup appears first. If the games have already started, the live score is shown alongside the pre-game chances.
Questions
Does it use player projections?
No. It uses each team’s actual scoring this season, so it reflects how teams have really performed rather than expert rankings. It doesn’t know about injuries or bye weeks, so check your own lineup.
What about leagues with a median game?
The extra game against the league median isn’t shown as a matchup, but it is included in the playoff and title odds.